20210320

Commodities Corner: Lean Hogs Target $1, Palladium Posts 11% Weekly Gain

It’s Hog Town 

Lean hog futures continued their 2021 rally this week, rising on tightening supplies and strengthening demand. Not even tense US-China discussion squelched hog prices in recent sessions. Could lean hog futures target $1 next? 

The US and China held talks in Alaska this week to touch upon a wide range of subjects. But the meeting ended abruptly, with both sides accusing each other of nefarious intent. Beijing accused Washington of encouraging countries “to attack China,” while American officials argued that the Chinese representatives “arrived intent on grandstanding.” Overall, the White House is worried about Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and cyberattacks. Beijing is perturbed by the US utilizing its military and financial supremacy to suppress other nations. 

Market analysts had flirted with the possibility that this would force China to start purchasing fewer US pork quantities. However, industry observers argued that it is unlikely to happen because demand is so strong, particularly as the broader economy reopens in the aftermath of the COVID-19 public health crisis. 

Investors also combed through the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest report that assessed the monthly cattle-on-feed numbers. According to the USDA, on-feed supplies this month stood at 102%, up from 98% in February. 

Hog markets will monitor the resurgence of the African swine flu in China. The disease had decimated the country’s hog supplies in 2018 and 2019. Authorities had prognosticated that supplies would return to pre-crisis levels by 2022 at the latest. But if African swine fever cases increase again, China might need to rely on foreign markets for its consumption needs. This would bode well for hog prices. 

  • Friday Settlement: -0.005 cent, or 0.05%, to 94.25 cents per pound 
  • Weekly Performance: +3.34% 
  • YTD Performance: +33.97% 

Palladium’s Double-Digit Weekly Gain 

It was a decent week for the precious metals, but it was an even better performance for palladium.  

The industrial metal was driven mostly by reports that production could be lower than initial forecasts. Nornickel, Russia’s mining giant, warned that platinum, palladium, and nickel output could be as much as 20% lower than its original guidance. In recent weeks, there have been several mine closures due to water problems. This could result in the loss of 710,000 ounces of palladium this year. 

This could drive palladium prices in 2021 and 2022 since international demand for the white metal remains strong. Financial analysts say that platinum could outperform gold over the next two to three years because of intense industrial demand.  

Palladium demand has increased this year, mainly from auto and investment demand. Money managers and hedge funds have begun to pour into palladium-related investments, especially with inflation on the horizon. 

Moreover, automakers continue to look for cheaper alternatives to palladium to meet government emission standards. Until then, they need to rely on industrial metal. Today, palladium’s primary function is in catalytic converters to strip pollutants from vehicles that run on diesel. Should electric vehicle adoption spike, demand for both platinum and palladium could spike. 

  • Friday Settlement: -$39.80, or 1.49%, to $2,623.00 per ounce 
  • Weekly Performance: +11.17% 
  • YTD Performance: +6.82% 

Is Oil Bubbling Into Correction Territory? 

Crude oil prices experienced a substantial correction this week, with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent contracts tumbling around 6%. The decline surprised financial markets since it has been traveling on a rocket to the moon for most of the calendar year. So, what happened? 

For the most part, oil took a breather from its rally on fears of economic uncertainty amid hiccups in the vaccine rollout program worldwide. While it seems to be on course in the US and the UK, other parts of the world are suffering from logistics headaches and concerns over the efficacy of the coronavirus vaccines, including Astra Zeneca. Experts warn that the world is in a race against time because the variants might intensify and initiate additional waves across the globe. 

US inventories continue to increase, too. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), domestic inventories of crude rose by 2.396 million barrels in the week ending March 12. This is lower than the median estimate of 2.964 million barrels. In the previous week, US stocks soared close to 14 million barrels. 

The industry is filled with news, too. The US administration warned China to stop purchasing Iranian discounted crude oil amid sanctions. New data found that Saudi Arabia enhanced crude exports in January. Venezuela’s energy sector could witness renewed growth as President Nicolas Maduro has promised to abolish the government monopoly on the sector, a move that could potentially enhance output. Saudi Arabia confirmed another drone attack on a Riyadh refinery, although officials say that the crude supply is safe. 

Ist this week’s abysmal performance confirmation of the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) statement that oil is not in a supercycle? The Paris-based group dashed estimates that crude demand would return to pre-pandemic levels this year, writing in a report: 

Global oil demand, still reeling from the pandemic’s effects, is unlikely to catch up with its pre-Covid trajectory. 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil  

  • Friday Settlement: +$1.45, or 2.41%, to $61.51 per barrel 
  • Weekly Performance: -6.18% 
  • YTD Performance: +27.03% 

Brent Crude Oil  

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.07, or 0.11%, to $64.46 per barrel 
  • Weekly Performance: -6.89% 
  • YTD Performance: +24.63% 

Are Investors Forecasting Weaker Cocoa Demand?

Could demand plummet for cocoa? The world’s top cocoa producers, Ghana and the Ivory Coast, are waiting for news from Zurich. It is being reported that Barry Callebaut, the Swiss chocolatier, is monitoring the coronavirus vaccine situation unfold in Europe. Reportedly, the company is paying strict attention to what is happening with the Astra Zeneca vaccine. 

This matters for cocoa-rich countries because how Barry Callebaut reacts could determine how much cocoa beans its grinds for the rest of the first quarter and perhaps into the second quarter. 

Cocoa prices have also slumped this year, sliding approximately 4%. The industry has tumbled as investors are factoring in vast supplies and weaker demand. This could weigh on economies that rely on cocoa production and exports. 

It did not help the sector when Belgian chocolatier Godiva announced that it was shutting down 128 retail chocolate stores and cafes in North America by the end of March. The move was surprising because cocoa demand had remained relatively strong in the US. But the decision may have been made on consumption declining in Europe and Asia during the fourth quarter. 

  • Friday Settlement: -$14.00, or 0.56%, to $2,479.00 per metric ton 
  • Weekly Performance: -4.06% 
  • YTD Performance: -4.54% 

If you have any questions and comments on commodities today, use the form below to reply. 


© AndrewMoran for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Cocoa, Hogs, Oil, Palladium

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Elon Musk Hold $5 Billion in Bitcoin, Anthony Scaramucci says

Elon Musk, the number 2 world’s richest man and CEO of Tesla and SpaceX could own $5 billion worth of Bitcoin, according to billionaire fund manager and SkyBridge Capital CEO, Anthony Scaramucci.

The former White House director of communications claimed that Elon Musk owned over $5 billion in Bitcoin through his companies and personally. Scaramucci also said that he understood that alongside Tesla, even SpaceX owns BTC on its balance sheet.

The billionaire made this known on his Twitter:

Elon Musk didn’t stop with Tesla. I understand that SpaceX owns bitcoin on its balance sheet.

Elon Musk has now become synonymous with cryptocurrencies. For years, he has spoken up for Bitcoin and more recently for Dogecoin. He has even been called the “CEO of Dogecoin.”

Recall that Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, adding the green-focused company to the list of many companies who now own the king cryptocurrency. This move came two weeks after the automaker’s CEO, Elon Musk, added the hashtag #bitcoin to his Twitter bio. A move that helped to push the price of Bitcoin as much as 20% to $38,566.

Scaramucci believes that Elon Musk’s love for innovations, electric cars, and green energy would push him to invest in renewable Bitcoin mining.

Recently, there has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin mining and carbon footprint. Bitcoin has been accused of eating up too much energy without any real use apart from solving complex mathematical calculations. Bitcoin mining farms make use of surplus energy produced from a clean source such as a hydro power plants  and dams.

Scaramucci sees Elon Musk as the key to Bitcoin-related “energy FUD.” He said: 

Elon Musk would invest in “dirty asset” is absurd. Future of bitcoin mining is renewable energy. Elon Musk sees future 1) renewables replace fossil fuels 2) Bitcoin demonetizes gold, RE, equities & art + becomes [the] dominant store of value. [The] answer to energy FUD is Elon Musk!

Recently, Scaramucci, though late to the Bitcoin narrative, has been addressing bearish narratives, such as Bitcoin’s reliance on high energy consumption. He also recently noted that Bitcoin is better than gold as more people adopt the coin.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© IbrahimAnifowoshe for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Technical Analysis

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Institutional Interest for Crypto in Asia Increases As Bitcoin Price Charts Signal Breakout

After falling to sub-$53,000 levels, Bitcoin is currently forming a bullish ascending triangle on the hourly chart, a signal that there they may be a breakout this weekend. The sudden surge which carried Bitcoin to its new all-time high around $62k was followed by a correction. The value of BTC stumbled to $53k, however, it was since pushed higher to settle at around $56,000 to $59,000 range. With the current price action, institutional investors interest in the coin in Asia is heating up.

At 12:26 GMT, the coin was exchanging hands at $59,198, a 0.23% gain over the last 24 hours. Over the week, the price was ranging and tested $60k twice. From the current price action, it appears that $53,000 is the bottom. Amid a renewed bullish momentum, the coin halted retracement at $56,000, leaving the major support at $54,000 untouched.

bitcoin 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, the relative strength index continues to signal a bullish sentiment as it in the overbought region. If the positive sentiment holds firm on the market, the bull rally will remain intact and continue.

Institutional investors interest in Bitcoin is heating up in Asia

As Bitcoin continues to gain favor among institutional investors in the Western world and America, Asian investors are not being left behind. During the week, two major conglomerates Kakao and Naver based out of South Korea confirmed their involvement with cryptocurrencies.

Naver, the biggest search engine in South Korea, confirmed its entry into the crypto space via Hashed venture fund. Kakao, who also owns 98% of the marketshare of messaging market through KakaoTalk, announced its own entry in the crypto and blockchain tech by investing heavily in it. Both tech giants cover major market shares for search and e-commerce in South Korea.

Joseph Young confirmed the news on Twitter:

Another major news is the confirmation that Morgan Stanley’s interest in Bithumb had legs. The bank is making an investment in the company. Naver said that Morgan Stanley was planning to invest between $254 million to $441 million (300 and 500 billion Korean won) in the exchange.

Sang Lee, president of VegaX, a Seoul-based digital asset management company explained why this news was important:

There is continued interest from the financial services industry in the Korean crypto infrastructure providers. Korea has historically been and continues to be one of the major hubs of crypto innovation and trading. We are seeing a refreshed interest from both the retail and institutional markets which will make Korean crypto infrastructure providers that much more important.

South East Asia’s first insured bitcoin fund, BCMG Genesis Bitcoin Fund-I (BGBF-I). It has set up this Bitcoin-only fund in anticipation of interest from large corporates and accredited investors in the pioneer cryptocurrency. This fund will help them diversify their cash reserves and balance sheet as it is being done in the US.

Fund Manager, Subbu Vempati said:

BGBF-I is a secure, insured and regulated platform where investors can get exposure to the Digital Assets industry. Investors get to benefit from our expertise in the financial, technical and security aspects of bitcoin investments, as well as enter this class with a peace of mind without any challenges or risk in directly handling the Digital Asset

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© IbrahimAnifowoshe for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Technical Analysis

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United States Imports of Automobiles & Parts (bci 616)


Imports of Automobiles & Parts (bci 616) in the United States decreased to 28616 USD Million in January from 33481 USD Million in December of 2020. Imports of Automobiles & Parts (bci 616) in the United States averaged 14655.43 USD Million from 1978 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 34537 USD Million in October of 2018 and a record low of 1755 USD Million in August of 1978. This page includes a chart with historical data for the United States Imports of Of Automobiles & Parts (bci 616).
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States Overnight Repo Rate


The United States Overnight Repo Rate decreased to 0.01 on Friday March 19 from 0.02 in the previous day. Repo Rate in the United States averaged 2.29 from 1995 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 6.94 in September of 2019 and a record low of -0.01 in December of 2009. Overnight repo rate is the interest rate at which different market participants swap treasuries for cash to cover short-term cash needs. The repo rate is helping to ensure banks have the liquidity to meet their daily operational needs and maintain sufficient reserves. The repo rate usually trades in line with the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. This page provides - United States Repo Rate- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States - Credit Rating


Fitch Ratings changed on Friday 31 July 2020 the United States’ sovereign rating outlook to negative from stable and affirmed the debt grade at AAA, citing as main trigger behind the revision the ongoing deterioration in the U.S. public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, issues that were highlighted in the agency's last rating review on March 26, 2020. Standard & Poor's credit rating for the United States stands at AA+ with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for the United States was last set at Aaa with stable outlook. DBRS's credit rating for the United States is AAA with stable outlook. In general, a credit rating is used by sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and other investors to gauge the credit worthiness of the United States thus having a big impact on the country's borrowing costs. This page includes the government debt credit rating for the United States as reported by major credit rating agencies.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States Net Long-term Tic Flows


There was 90815 million of dollars worth of Treasury International Capital (TIC) flowing into the United States in January of 2021. Net Long Term Tic Flows in the United States averaged 24875.92 USD Million from 1978 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 157830 USD Million in September of 2014 and a record low of -134895 USD Million in April of 2020. The Net Long-Term TIC Flows track the flow of Treasury and agency securities, corporate bonds and equities, into and out of the United States. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Net Long-term Tic Flows - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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20210319

Commodities Week in Review: March 15 to March 19

Commodities Week in Review: March 15 to March 19

Agriculture 

It was a rough trading week for most of the hard agricultural commodities, with China coming into focus and a stronger US dollar. It is being reported that the world’s largest agriculture consumer is witnessing a resurgence of the African swine flu, the same disease that decimated its hog supply in 2018 and 2019. Investors have been cautious that Beijing might start to importer fewer quantities of crops amid a record level of stockpiles. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) finished the week up 0.1%, a trend that makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign investors to purchase.

Cocoa 

  • Friday Settlement:  -$14.00, or 0.56%, to $2,479.00 per metric ton
  • Weekly Performance: -4.06%
  • YTD Performance: -4.54%

Coffee 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.012, or 0.92%, to $1.2875 per pound
  • Weekly Performance: -3.30%
  • YTD Performance: +1.14%

Corn 

  • Friday Settlement: +$0.1025, or 1.88%, to $5.5675 per pound
  • Weekly Performance: +3.15%
  • YTD Performance: +14.62%

Cotton 

  • Friday Settlement: -0.55 cent, or 0.64%, to 84.90 cents per pound
  • Weekly Performance: -3.26%
  • YTD Performance: +8.55%

Lean Hogs

  • Friday Settlement: -0.005 cent, or 0.05%, to 94.25 cents per pound
  • Weekly Performance: +3.34%
  • YTD Performance: +33.97%

Orange Juice 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.0015, or 0.13$, to $1.155 per pound
  • Weekly Performance: +0.04%
  • YTD Performance: -8.22%

Rice 

  • Friday Settlement: +$0.005, or 0.04%, to $12.99 per pound
  • Weekly Performance: -0.04%
  • YTD Performance: +9.02%

Soybeans 

  • Friday Settlement: +$0.2425, or 1.74%, to $14.165 per bushel
  • Weekly Performance: +0.25%
  • YTD Performance: +8.11%

Sugar 

  • Friday Settlement: -0.12 cent, or 0.76%, to 15.77 cents per pound
  • Weekly Performance: -2.11%
  • YTD Performance: +1.74%

Wheat 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.04, or 0.63%, to $6.265 per bushe;
  • Weekly Performance: -1.8%
  • YTD Performance: -2.38%

Bitcoin 

The peer-to-peer decentralized virtual currency received some great news this week when it was reported that Morgan Stanley would become the first US bank to offer its wealthy clients access to bitcoin funds. The financial institution determined that its affluent customers, who have at least $2 million in assets held by the business, possessed “an aggressive risk tolerance.” The news helped offset the Indian government cracking down on the cryptocurrency, a development that affected bitcoin prices last week.

  • Friday Settlement: +$1,080.00, or 1.88%, to $58,455.00 per coin
  • Weekly Performance: +2.09%
  • YTD Performance: +100.02%

Energy 

Crude oil prices took a beating this week on concerns of economic uncertainty stemming from hiccups related to the coronavirus vaccine rollout. Market analysts noted that investors were worried that not jabbing enough people would eventually lead to additional cases with third and fourth waves of new infections. Although Friday’s impressive gains were enough to minimize some of the damage, it was not enough to wipe out the eye-popping decline. But industry observers are not concerned, noting that this correction was healthy and long overdue.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil 

  • Friday Settlement: +$1.45, or 2.41%, to $61.51 per barrel
  • Weekly Performance: -6.18%
  • YTD Performance: +27.03%

Brent Crude Oil 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.07, or 0.11%, to $64.46 per  barrel
  • Weekly Performance: -6.89%
  • YTD Performance: +24.63%

Natural Gas 

  • Friday Settlement: +$0.067, or 2.67%, to $2.578 per million British thermal units (btu)
  • Weekly Performance: -2.20%
  • YTD Performance: +1.66%

Gasoline 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.0073, or 0.038%, to $1.9368 per gallon
  • Weekly Performance: -10.00%
  • YTD Performance: +37.25%

Heating Oil 

  • Friday Settlement: +$0.038, or 2.13%, to $1.8239 per gallon
  • Weekly Performance: -7.23%
  • YTD Performance: +22.85%

Metals 

For the second consecutive week, gold prices logged a weekly gain, enjoying a healthy bounce following an abysmal start to 2021. Despite rising Treasury yields and a strengthening greenback, gold was still able to climb well above $1,700, buoyed mainly by inflation fears. The industrial metals, barring palladium, reversed their upward performance as they emulated the volatility in the broader financial markets.

Gold 

  • Friday Settlement: +$12.00, or 0.69%, to $1,744.50 per ounce
  • Weekly Performance: +1.08%
  • YTD Performance: -8.26%

Silver 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.016, or 0.06%, to $26.335 per ounce
  • Weekly Performance: +1.31%
  • YTD Performance: -0.72%

Copper 

  • Friday Settlement: -$0.004, or 0.1%, to $4.104 per pound
  • Weekly Performance: -1.27%
  • YTD Performance: +16.59%

Palladium 

  • Friday Settlement: -$39.80, or 1.49%, to $2,623.00 per ounce
  • Weekly Performance: +11.17%
  • YTD Performance: +6.82%

Platinum 

  • Friday Settlement: -$21.40, or 1.76%, to $1,196.10 per ounce
  • Weekly Performance: -0.95%
  • YTD Performance: +10.8%

Steel 

  • Friday Settlement: +$8.00, or 0.64%, to $1,266.00 per ton
  • Weekly Performance: +0.64%
  • YTD Performance: +31.46%

If you have any questions and comments on commodities today, use the form below to reply.


© AndrewMoran for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Gold, Hogs, Natural Gas, Oil, Orange Juice, Palladium, Platinum, Rice, Silver, Soybean, Steel, Sugar, Wheat

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As Bitcoin Trades Tight, Metric Shows Pro Traders Increased Their Longs

For a few days now, BTC has continued to swing between $57,000 and $59,000. As Bitcoin continues to reject a $60,000 resistance level, it appears top traders at major Bitcoin exchanges have increased their long positions.

After the pioneer cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high near $62,000 on March 13, Bitcoin has been falling to new support levels. The coin had held firm at $54,000. But currently, there is decent buying activity around $57,000.

Professional traders are showing substantial optimism as their interest seems to be picking up as the coin price goes up.

Bitcoin price at Coinbase

The top traders’ long-to-short indicator is calculated using clients’ consolidated positions, including spot, margin, perpetual and futures contracts.

BTC LONG on exchanges

As it stands, OKEx traders bought the dip on March 15, moving to a 1.35 ratio favoring longs. This is the highest level seen in 2 weeks.

Huobi top traders increased their 0.80 ratio to 0.90. Keep in mind that doesn’t necessarily indicate those traders are bearish since a 10% net short position has been their average over the past 30 days.

However, Binance traders reduced their longs when the market dipped on March 15. But they have since kept their 1.21 ratio which favor longs by 21%.

It is clear that arbitrage desks and whales increased their longs throughout the $500 million liquidation that occured on March 15.

On-chain metrics shows Bitcoin is at risk

At 18:20 GMT, Bitcoin is trading at $58,441, a gain of 0.49% in the last 24 hours. It seems that on-chain network activity tool, Bitcoin NVT, or Network Value to Transactions, a tool used to show past network action useful at forecasting price, is showing that the coin may be experiencing trend changes.

According to analysis from CryptoQuant, the NVT Golden Cross indicator has reached a three-year high at a reading of over 4. “Values above 2.2. indicate downside risk goes up,” the report reveals. At over 4, risk is off the charts in Bitcoin, but so has been the bullish momentum.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© IbrahimAnifowoshe for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Technical Analysis

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United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index


Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to 26 points in February from 22 points in January of 2021. Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 7.73 points from 2001 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 35 points in March of 2005 and a record low of -62 points in April of 2020. The Kansas City Fed's monthly Survey of Tenth District Manufacturers provides information on current manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, encompassing the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The survey monitors about 300 manufacturing plants selected according to geographic distribution, industry mix, and size. Survey results reveal changes in several indicators of manufacturing activity, including production and shipments, and identify changes in prices of raw materials and finished products. This page provides - United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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Gold Under Pressure from Rising US Dollar, Treasurys

Gold futures are trading relatively flat to end the trading week as a strengthening US dollar and mixed bond market weighed on the precious metal. Despite the lackluster movement in gold prices, the yellow metal is poised for its second straight weekly gain. Can gold find support for $1,750 toward the end of March?

April gold futures rose $2.60, or 0.15%, to $1.735.10 per ounce at 15:35 GMT on Friday on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold is poised for a weekly boost of about 0.5%, paring its year-to-date loss to below 9%.

Silver, the sister commodity to gold, has struggled to remain in positive territory. May silver futures tumbled $0.126, or 0.48%, to $26.225 an ounce. The white metal will also settle the trading week with a gain of nearly 1%.

The metals market is mostly moving based on the greenback and bonds.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the buck against a basket of currencies advanced 0.24% to 92.08, from an opening of 91.83. The index will post a weekly jump of 0.4%, adding to its YTD rally of 2.4%. A stronger buck is bad for commodities priced in dollars because it makes it more expensive for foreign investors to purchase.

Bonds have dominated finance headlines in recent weeks, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbing above a one-year high to 1.728%. The one-year bill dipped 0.008% to 0.063%, while the 30-year bond dropped 0.014% to 2.462%. Higher bonds are negative for non-yielding bullion since it raises the opportunity cost for investors.

Analysts at Commerzbank wrote in a research note:

The tug of war continues between rising bond yields (which are weighing on gold) and the nervousness on the stock markets (which is tending to lend support).

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve completed its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. It left interest rates and the quantitative easing program unchanged. The Fed also confirmed that discussing policy tightening was premature, adding that it will continue to support the economic recovery. The Eccles Building anticipates economic growth over the next three years and inflation to hit 2.59% within five years. The dot plot shows officials are split between a rate hike in 2022 and 2023.

Long-term gold prices are benefiting from inflation concerns. In addition to President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus and relief package, Democratic leaders have been talking about another round of aggressive spending later this year.

In other metal markets, April copper futures slipped $0.016, or 0.39%, to $4.092 per pound. April platinum futures declined $30.20, or 2.48%, to $1,187.30 an ounce. April palladium futures plunged $41.30, or 1.55%, to $2,621.50 per ounce.

If you have any questions and comments on commodities today, use the form below to reply.


© AndrewMoran for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Gold

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US Dollar LIBOR Three Month Rate


US Dollar LIBOR Three Month Rate was at 0.19 percent on Friday March 19. Interbank Rate in the United States averaged 3.62 percent from 1986 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 10.63 percent in March of 1989 and a record low of 0.18 percent in February of 2021. The three month US Dollar LIBOR interest rate is the average interest rate at which a LIBOR contributor bank can obtain unsecured funding in the London interbank market for a three month period in US dollars. This page provides - United States Interbank Rate- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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20210318

Traders Are Betting on the June $80,000 Bitcoin Call Option

Considering the bullish performance of Bitcoin (BTC) in the past weeks, it does not seem unreasonable to bet on $80,000 Bitcoin call options to expire in June. This was not the case a couple of months ago when Bitcoin price dropped to $30k level after rising to $42k on January 8.

Bitcoin price. Source: TradingView

As the chart above shows, on January 26, when the price of Bitcoin was trading at $32,000, a 150% increase was required to reach the $80,000 level. Therefore, the June buy options at $80,000 traded at Deribit for $2,240, or 0.07 BTC, at that time.

BTC call option with a June maturity date, with a transaction price of $80K. Source: Deribit

In less than two months, Bitcoin reached $61,700 on March 13, and the price of the call option jumped to 0.15 BTC, or $9,255. The value tripled in less than seven weeks. Note that despite a 93% rally, BTC needed to gain another 30% to reach $80,000.

BTC June call options. Source: Deribit

Despite the recent rise in the BTC price, the implied options probability (delta) of these options is at 39%. The price of the call option has also risen due to the volatility of BTC as sellers demanded a larger premium due to their risk-taking in uncertain markets.

Regardless of which direction, intense price swings increase volatility and unexpected news causes this indicator to rise.

The historical fluctuation of 60 days of Bitcoin options. Source: Buybitcoinworldwide.com

The chart above shows how Bitcoin volatility increased from 4% in January to the current 5%. Call option buyers consider this event bullish. Even if the price of BTC remained the same, the option price would have risen accordingly.

Options pricing relies heavily on the distance of the expiry date as the $80,000 call options may become worthless two days before maturity. For this reason, investors should not pay too much attention to the implied options probability (delta) which seems far-fetched because of the fact that BTC gained 43% in the last 100 days.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© MarkStevenson for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Forecasts

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#PyndanEX Gold Price Forecast: XAU Grasps for Long-Term Fibonacci Support



Gold prices have been down since August but are not yet out, as Gold price action is clinging to the 38.2 retracement of the 2018-2020 major move.
SOURCE: DAILYFX
Priceages Magazine

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Anthony Scaramucci Admits Bitcoin Is Better than Gold As Adoption Grows

SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci has admitted that Bitcoin is better than gold if investors take the time out to study it.

The hedge fund manager made this known in an interview with CNBC on March 18. Scaramucci who is the CEO of SkyBridge Capital admitted that, although gold may have been the choice for a store of value for over 4,000 years, he believes that nothing is forever.

He told the host, Joe Kernen, that:

The world is changing — that’s the final record, Joe, the world is changing.

Scaramucci’s comment is in sharp contrast to gold evangelist, Peter Schiff, who remains convinced that Bitcoin will fail, leaving gold as the sole choice to escape the perils of central bank economic policy.

The investment manager also noted that Bitcoin meets the conditions of money as technology. Hence, it is a far better option to gold. He told Joe:

In a lot of ways, if you study it, it’s better than gold. It’s easier to store, you can move it around more quickly, and that value — that trusted network — is growing. And to be prudent, you don’t have to own a lot of it, but just some of it.

Scaramucci estimated that there are around 125 million Bitcoin users around the world, right now. He believes that the number would reach 1 billion by 2025.

Earlier, SkyBridge Capital made the headlines in December 2020 when it launched its BTC Fund. A move that occurred when Bitcoin was witnessing a parabolic surge towards $30,000.

Adoption grows as Morgan Stanley launches crypto services

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has said that it will offer its wealthy clients access to Bitcoin funds. This makes the bank the first leading bank in the US to make such move.

The investment bank will be working with Galaxy Digital, FS Investments and Bitcoin company NYDIG to offer the services. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz tweeted about it. He said:

Galaxy is thrilled to partner with Morgan Stanley, the first US bank to offer Wealth Management clients access to Bitcoin funds.

Morgan Stanley currently manages over $4 trillion for its clients, and its entry into Bitcoin (BTC) could be huge for the crypto market.

As Bitcoin adoption grows, a recent study by Harris Poll on behalf of Yahoo Finance also showed that 15% of those who received the last two rounds of stimulus checks directed some of the money towards investment. Of that group, around half invested in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin specifically.

It is expected that the number of recipients who plan to invest some of their checks will increase to 17% this time, as the more stimulus checks go out at the end of March. While the overall number of crypto buyers will remain fairly stable, at 41% of the would-be investor group.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© IbrahimAnifowoshe for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin

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Four Charts on Canada’s Carbon Pollution Pricing System

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IMF Loan to Support Economic Recovery in Kenya

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Natural Gas Crashes Amid Small Supply Withdrawal, Warmer Weather

Natural gas futures crashed on Thursday, even before the US government released its weekly supply report. As warmer winter weather and limited consumption become the themes of the natural gas market, the bears have taken control of the energy commodity. Could prices slide below $2 before the summer?

April natural gas futures cratered $0.077, or 3.01%, to $2.478 per million British thermal units (btu) at 14:40 GMT on Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Natural gas is poised for a weekly decline of about 9%, wiping out its year-to-date gain and bringing the so-called bridge fuel’s 2021 loss to more than 2%.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), domestic supplies of natural gas fell only 11 billion cubic feet in the week ending March 12. This is below the median estimate of 17 billion cubic feet. It is also down from last week’s 52 billion cubic feet withdrawal.

In total, natural gas inventories stand at 1.782 trillion cubic feet, down 253 billion cubic feet from last year. They are also 93 billion cubic feet below the five-year average.

Is the US energy market preparing for greater supplies coming online? Earlier this week, the EIA confirmed that four new natural gas pipelines have gone into service since November, increasing the sector’s capacity to transport by approximately 4.4 billion cubic feet per day. The pipelines were Saginaw Trail Pipeline of Consumer Energy, Buckeye Xpress Project, Agua Blanca Expansion Project of Whitewater/MPLX, and Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway Pipeline.

The EIA is noting that additional natural gas pipelines could come online over the next three years, although President Joe Biden has vowed to transition the country to renewable energy by slashing federal support for fossil fuels. Also, the White House recently lent support to a natural gas pipeline project in a legal battle regarding an eminent domain case that went to the Supreme Court.

On the weather front, aside from the winter storm and additional blizzard warnings throughout Colorado, the rest of the country is expected to see warmer temperatures in the coming weeks. This would affect natural gas demand, meaning that the bulls will potentially have to wait until the summer before demand would increase again.

In other energy commodities, April West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures plummeted $1.75, or 2.71%, to $62.88 per barrel. May Brent crude futures shed $1.87, or 2.75%, to $66.17 a barrel. April gasoline futures plunged $0.0456, or 2.23%, to $2.0026 per gallon. April heating oil futures declined $0.0528, or 2.81%, to $1.8525 a gallon.

If you have any questions and comments on commodities today, use the form below to reply.


© AndrewMoran for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Natural Gas

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United States Natural Gas Stocks Change


Working gas held in storage facilities in the United States decreased by 11 billion cubic feet in the week ending March 12 of 2021 . Natural Gas Stocks Change in the United States averaged -0.40 Billion cf from 1994 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 147 Billion cf in July of 2003 and a record low of -359 Billion cf in January of 2018. Natural Gas Stocks Change refers to the weekly change of the natural gas supply situation. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Natural Gas Stocks Change - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims


Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims in the United States decreased to 282.39 Thousand in March 13 from 478.91 Thousand in the previous week. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims in the United States averaged 557.26 Thousand from 2020 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1352.18 Thousand in May of 2020 and a record low of 31.95 Thousand in April of 2020. This page provides - United States Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index


Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to 51.80 points in March from 23.10 points in February of 2021. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States averaged 9.18 points from 1968 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 58.50 points in March of 1973 and a record low of -57.90 points in December of 1974. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is based on The Business Outlook Survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants report the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The index above 0 indicates factory-sector growth, below 0 contraction. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States Jobless Claims 4-week Average


Jobless Claims 4-week Average in the United States decreased to 746.25 Thousand in March 13 from 762.25 Thousand in the previous week. Jobless Claims 4-week Average in the United States averaged 372.75 Thousand from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 5790.25 Thousand in April of 2020 and a record low of 179 Thousand in May of 1969. This page provides - United States Jobless Claims 4-week Average- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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United States Initial Jobless Claims


Initial Jobless Claims in the United States decreased to 712 thousand in the week ending March 6 of 2021 from 754 thousand in the previous week. Initial Jobless Claims in the United States averaged 372.70 Thousand from 1967 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 6867 Thousand in March of 2020 and a record low of 162 Thousand in November of 1968. Initial jobless claims have a big impact in financial markets because unlike continued claims data which measures the number of persons claiming unemployment benefits, Initial jobless claims measures new and emerging unemployment. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Initial Jobless Claims - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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Video: Updated Silver Price Analysis for March 2021 – Silver to Follow Gold Down?

In the present video, David Jones from Capital.com provides his updated forecast for silver in March 2021. He starts the video with fundamental analysis, discussing factors that were driving the silver market, which David considers to be boring this year, what fundamentals will drive prices in the future, and what forecasts analysts have made for the metal. Next, David turns to technical analysis, listing the major support and resistance levels, showing charts and technical indicators, and trying to predict where prices may go next. Having already two open positions, David refrains from making a trade but says that he still prefers to be a buyer and offers recommendations to traders who want to purchase the white metal.

If you found this video useful and want to see more videos like this one or if you want to see a commodity trading video on some other topic, please leave your response using the form below.


© Commodity Inspector for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Forecasts, Silver, Trading Videos

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US Dollar LIBOR Three Month Rate


US Dollar LIBOR Three Month Rate was at 0.19 percent on Thursday March 18. Interbank Rate in the United States averaged 3.62 percent from 1986 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 10.63 percent in March of 1989 and a record low of 0.18 percent in February of 2021. The three month US Dollar LIBOR interest rate is the average interest rate at which a LIBOR contributor bank can obtain unsecured funding in the London interbank market for a three month period in US dollars. This page provides - United States Interbank Rate- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Source | 🇺🇸 United States : Chart

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20210317

The Reason Why Bitcoin Jumped by $2,500 in an Hour

The premier cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), consolidated in a range below $55,000 for most of the day on Wednesday, March 17. However, at the beginning of the US trading session, Bitcoin bulls took over and sent the price to $57,818 as the uptrend continues to gain strength.

BTC/USD 1-Hour Chart. Source: TradingView

More incentives — more expensive Bitcoin

The reason for the growth of Bitcoin was the decision of the Federal Reserve to leave the discount rate unchanged, despite the strengthening of the economy and rising inflationary expectations.

Following a regular meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC), the Central Bank raised its forecasts for economic growth for 2021 from 4.2% to 6.5%, but at the same time announced that it did not plan to raise the rate at least until the end of 2023.

Moreover, the regulator promised to continue buying bonds on the open market for at least $120 million. These purchases will provide the financial system with additional liquidity and stimulate economic growth.

The accompanying statement reads:

The recovery is moderate, with economic activity and labor market indicators heading higher, but the sectors hit hardest by the pandemic are still severely weakened. Inflation is kept below 2%.

Inflationary expectations have also risen. The FOMC expects personal consumption spending to increase 2.2% this year and decline to 2% in 2022.

Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation

Improved economic forecasts added optimism to investors and Bitcoin rallied higher along with other risky assets such as stocks. In addition, cryptocurrency is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and the demand for it grows along with inflationary expectations.

The Fed’s decision to keep stimulus despite the economic recovery could lead to overheating and higher price pressures. Bitcoin, on the other hand, was originally created as an asset with a predetermined supply volume and built-in deflationary characteristics.

Experts are confident that large-scale injections of liquidity into the economy are fueling a bullish trend in the cryptocurrency market. According to the head of the blockchain company Diginex Richard Byworth, this factor will play a key role in strengthening Bitcoin. According to the expert, Bitcoin price may rise to $175,000 by the end of 2021.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© MarkStevenson for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin

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Bitcoin Doubled in 75 Days – Has the Price Risen Too Much?

Bitcoin (BTC) price has doubled in the past 75 days, prompting some analysts to question whether the price has risen too much.

However, a historical analysis by the Bitcoin monitoring team CaseBitcoin reveals that the Bitcoin price may go higher. CaseBitcoin announced that the time it took for the Bitcoin price to double fell to 12 days just before the 2017 bull market peak.

CaseBitcoin said the fastest doubling period recorded in the current cycle was seen on January 7, with BTC rising from $21k to $42k in just 22 days. 

The company pointed out that there are similarities between the market behavior in January and the market behavior in August 2017, the mid-term of the 2017 bull market. Bitcoin price doubled in 26 days, reaching $5,000 for the first time in history, and lost 40% in the following weeks. CaseBitcoin, addressing the current rise, summarized:

The past few months are similar in general to the mid-2017 bull market. At that time, the time it took for the BTC price to double was generally under 100 days, but never below 20.

“It will be interesting if we can see doubling times as fast as in the 2013 and 2017 cycles,” analysts added.

In 2013, the doubling time of the Bitcoin price dropped to four days during the peak of the bull market.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© MarkStevenson for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin

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Bitcoin ‘Will Not Stop at $100K,’ Says Stock-to-Flow Creator

As Bitcoin price hovers around the $55,000 support level, stock-to-flow creator, Plan B has said that the coin will reach $288k by December.

According to the analyst, Bitcoin price will not stop at $100,000 this year. With the coin trading sideways below both it’s recent peaks of $58,300 and $61,700, investors are concerned about where the 2021 bull run is headed.

For the followers of the stock-to-flow model, the bull run is just getting started. In a number of posts on Twitter on Wednesday, the creator, Plan B, noted that Bitcoin will not stop at $100k but will continue toward a $288k average price level. He noted:

December close: $28,992 January close: $33,141 February close: $45,240 March 17 price: $55,000 We are only 3.5 months into the bitcoin bull market. IMO BTC will not stop at $100K and will continue to S2FX $288K average price level (ATH will be higher).
stock to flow by plan b

Plan B explained this referencing his stock-to-flow, or S2F, and stock-to-flow cross-asset, or S2FX, models, which give an average BTC/USD price forecast of $100,000 and $288,000 during the current halving cycle, set to end in 2024.

Although, the $288k mark is just the conservative figure. Plan B believes that the peak of this cycle could be double those figures to the tune of $576,000.

Fellow analyst, Rekt Capital, has also given credence to this projection.

He noted on Twitter that the S2F model is on its way to its next target. He believes it could potentially see upside deviations. He said:

Upside price deviations from the Stock to Flow line tend to precede Bull Market tops for BTC. At the moment, $BTC is perfectly follow the Stock to Flow line. But Bitcoin hasn’t deviated from it — yet.

Rekt Capital stock-to-flow model

It’s interesting to note that despite the stock-to-flow model not existing during the top of Bitcoin’s first halving cycle price peak in 2011, it achieved a trajectory deviation equal to 1,157%.

At 18:48 GMT on Wednesday, the coin was trading at $57,275, a gain of 3.48% in the last 24 hours.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© IbrahimAnifowoshe for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Forecasts

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Bitcoin May Rise to $175,000 by the End of 2021 – Diginex

By the end of the year, the price of one bitcoin will grow to at least $175,000. This prediction was made by the head of the blockchain company Diginex Richard Byworth in an interview with Bloomberg.

According to him, the influx of institutions has already begun to be reflected in the price of the cryptocurrency. Byworth said:

We are projecting a Bitcoin price of about $175,000 by the end of this year. We think we will clearly see institutional acceptance at this level.

The current price activity of Bitcoin, according to the head of Diginex, is driven by two factors: massive monetary incentives and bitcoin’s status as a hedge against inflation.

Bitcoin only at the beginning of the rally

According to Byworth, the buy-up of 40% of the annual supply of Bitcoin by companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square is just the beginning of the rally. Combined with last year’s Bitcoin halving, a supply crisis is unfolding in the market. “This is only the first stage of the rally…” It will be much hotter further, ” Byworth emphasizes.

When asked what could prevent the cryptocurrency rally, Byworth referred to the change in the inflationary policy of the US Federal Reserve System.

However, even in this case, growth will only “slow down a little.” In his opinion, the Fed will not risk deflation under any circumstances.

However, Glassnode has a different opinion. In their opinion, the dynamics of selling Bitcoin by long-term hodlers more and more resembles the maximum of the 2017 rally. It is possible that the cryptocurrency has already found its top, although there are key differences between the rallies.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.


© MarkStevenson for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Forecasts

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