Saturday, March 13, 2021

Bitcoin Consolidates Above $57,000. Where Is BTC Heading Next?

In 2020, after a significant decline due to the covid-19 pandemic, the BTC/USD pair recovered from around $3,500 to just above $10,000.

Many analysts viewed this move more as a corrective move, linking it to the BTC halving in May. Nevertheless, despite the pessimistic forecasts and sentiments, after the halving, Bitcoin managed to stabilize in the region of $10,000 — $13,000, after which the prices of the premier cryptocurrency steadily headed towards $19,870 — the maximum of 2017.

Breaking this level marked the triumphant return of bulls to the cryptocurrency markets.

From the same moment, the second wave of the uptrend began, which, in my opinion, ended at $58,335. We observed the correction phase of this wave at the end of February when the BTC/USD pair fell sharply to $46,136.

The market is preparing for the third wave

Now market participants are preparing for the third wave of growth and stabilize prices in the range of $53,000 — $56,000. A technical trigger for further growth can be a confident overcoming of the $59,000 mark, which could provoke a massive close of short positions.

Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: TradingView

The targets of the third wave of growth under a moderate scenario of the development of events may be the marks of $70,000 — $75,000, under the optimistic scenario — $90,000 — $100,000. These goals are indicative since due to the strong dynamics of cryptocurrencies it is difficult to make any accurate forecasts.

The bull trap won’t work

In addition, I would like to note that another scenario is possible — the so-called “bull trap”, when, after breaking through the high, the price turns in the opposite direction. But in my opinion, now, the probability of such an event is no more than 30%, since there are strong fundamental factors on the side of Bitcoin.

Firstly, these are the measures taken by the world central banks to stimulate the economy and counter the crisis caused by the pandemic.

Secondly, the recognition of cryptocurrencies by the leading players of traditional financial platforms. This includes news about Tesla‘s $1.5 billion investment in Bitcoin and the release of Ethereum on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All this strengthens the position of Bitcoin and makes it more likely that the upward movement will continue.

When the trend starts to fade

Most likely, the upward trend will slow down when global central banks and governments start signaling the gradual curtailment of financial incentives. This should be preceded by systematic positive macroeconomic data from the US and Europe.

Paradoxically, the longer the United States takes to get out of the pandemic crisis, the more likely cryptocurrencies will feel better. I believe that global support for financial markets will last until at least September this year. In the meantime, investors are adjusting positions in their investment portfolios, and most likely, by the end of March, a sawtooth movement in the range of $53,000 — $56,000 will be observed on cryptocurrency exchanges.

If you have any questions and comments on Bitcoin today, use the form below to reply.

© MarkStevenson for Commodity News, 2021. | Permalink | No comment |
Published under: Bitcoin, Forecasts

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