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Soybeans Extend Rebound As Markets Monitor China’s African Swine Flu Resurgence

Soybean futures have been rebounding for the last two sessions following last week’s substantial 7.3% weekly plunge. The agricultural commodity had taken a hit on profit-taking and South America’s weather conditions improving that would enhance crop yield prospects. Could soybean prices retest $14?

March soybean futures advanced $0.2875, or 2.14%, to $13.7225 per bushel at 15:55 GMT on Tuesday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Despite last week’s slide, soybean prices are still up 5% this month.

For weeks soybean prices had been climbing on dry weather trends in Brazil and Argentina, two of the largest soybean producers. In recent days, favorable rain patterns have started popping up throughout the countries, allowing harvests to get better. This has market analysts increasing their yield expectations and better output projections for the new marketing season.

According to S&P Global Platts, the average forecast for Brazilian soybeans in the 2020–2021 marketing season revised upward by 400,000 metric tons to 132.2 million metric tons. Soybean production estimates have risen 500,000 metric tons to 47 million metric tons.

In a recent report, the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service projects that Brazil’s soybean prices will remain high in the coming weeks on the harvest delay. Although weather conditions have improved, FAS researchers say that domestic soybean scarcity will persist for at least six weeks.

Has the African swine flu returned to China? After the world’s largest soybean consumer ostensibly defeated the outbreak among its inventory of pigs, there are reports that new strains of the swine flu have been found at a pig farm in China. The pig farming sector was decimated in August 2018, resulting in the loss of about half of its swine population.

For now, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, China’s hog production capacity is predicted to reach 100% of its pre-swine flu level in June of this year. But if the African swine flu returns, the pork and soybean industry could take a beating this year. How this would impact the US-China phase one trade agreement would also be up in the air.

In other agricultural commodities, March corn futures soared $0.175, or 3.42%, to $5.29 per pound. March wheat futures added $0.1725, or 2.66%, to $6.6575 a pound. March coffee futures spiked $0.0235, or 1.91%, to $1.256 per pound.

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